NUMERICAL THINKING

When it comes to thinking in terms of numbers, what we call numeracy is sadly under-developed in most people. The average person has limited exposure to mathematics, mathematical thinking, statistics, etc. As a result, if a person wants to manipulate information and distort it in their favor, they quote statistics. Mark Twain popularized the famous statement, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Although it was mistakenly been attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli. Anyway, this phrase describes the persuasive power of numbers both positively and negatively. You can use statistics to bolster weak arguments and you can use statistics to doubt an opponent's point.

Why is that? Because numbers, by themselves, do not mean anything. To have a meaning, as with words, numbers need a context. We count things and put things in numbers, we do so to relate one thing to another. Yet without a context, a number can easily be blown out of proportion so that it mis-communicates, even deceives. To keep things in proportion and to understand the meaning, we have to know the first context as well as the layers of contexts behind the numbers.

The problem with quoting numbers is this— if numbers are presented without a context, the numbers are probably being used manipulatively. Typically, they are being used as a scare tacit. And of course, fear sells the news. Fear is dramatic and sensational. I see this on some news channels like CNN. They present the number of cases of the virus and the number of deaths, both in the USA and in the world. Yet without some context, those numbers are designed to frighten people.

Now 208,000 deaths sounds terrible! Yet that number is not the highest death rate number in the US, it is actually the third. It comes after the number of deaths by cancer and heart attacks. To identify the context here, you have to ask? “How many people die in the USA normally?” Answer: The total number of U.S. deaths are 2,750,000, which is 1/13 th of the total. That means the total number is 13 times that number.

In terms of the cases, if we have 7,000,000 who have caught the virus— that, again, sounds horrendous. But with a population of 328,000,000 that means that 321,000,000 have not caught the virus even after it has been spreading for 10 months. So in spite of the virus being highly infectious— it has only spread to about 1% of the population.

Here are the most recent numbers (this week) from the CDC (Center for Disease Control) about the survival rate from the corna-virus. Of those getting the virus, how many are surviving? The data present the rate according to various age groups.

Statistically also, if you are under 65 years of age, you are 7 times more likely to be struck by lightning and die than to die by covid. As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released this new data, they also indicated how many Americans who have died from COVID-19 who also had other contributing conditions. According to the report, only 6% of deaths have COVID-19 as the only cause mentioned, revealing that 94% of patients who died from coronavirus also had other “health conditions and contributing causes,” among the most command are:

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website disclosed the shockingly small number of people who died from only the Wuhan coronavirus, with no other cause of death mentioned. Hold on to your hat because here it is: out of the 161,392 deaths in the CDC data, just six percent, about 9,700 deaths, were attributed to the coronavirus alone. According to the CDC, the other 94 percent had an average of 2.6 additional conditions or causes of deaths, such as heart disease, diabetes, and sepsis.”

The greatest antidote to unreasonable fear — the facts. So, get the facts. Use your critical thinking skills to push back against the hype. It will do more for your peace of mind and sanity than anything else.